The Fraser Institute's 2026 report, The Growing Debt Burden for Canadians, says federal and provincial debt has become a larger fiscal pressure since the late 2000s.
The report, written by Jake Fuss, compares federal and provincial net debt across Canada and measures the burden using inflation-adjusted debt, debt-to-GDP ratios, and debt per person.
Its headline finding is that combined federal and provincial net debt has nearly doubled since 2007/08. The report says the total rose from $1.24 trillion in 2007/08 to a projected $2.44 trillion in 2025/26, measured in 2025 dollars.
The Fraser Institute also compares the period before the pandemic with the current fiscal outlook. It says the combined federal-provincial debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to grow from 65.9% in 2019/20 to 75.4% in 2025/26.
The report estimates that governments collectively accumulated $603.7 billion in inflation-adjusted net debt between 2019/20 and 2025/26. In nominal terms, it says the increase over that period was $919.7 billion.
The provincial picture varies sharply. The report says Manitoba has the highest combined federal-provincial debt-to-GDP ratio at 91.3%, while Alberta has the lowest at 43.4%. Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest combined debt per person at $71,611.
The report's policy concern is interest cost. The Fraser Institute argues that debt-service payments compete with tax cuts and program spending because revenue used to pay interest is no longer available for health care, education, social services, or tax relief.
That conclusion reflects the Fraser Institute's fiscal-policy perspective, not a government announcement. For readers, the useful takeaway is that public debt affects future budget choices: higher debt and interest costs can narrow the room governments have for new programs, lower taxes, or fiscal stabilization.